Every which way but truth

As an Intel stockholder (and former employee with a bunch of friends still working there) I do pay attention to Intel’s stock price. Presumably, then, following the news about Intel should give me some idea of the best time to sell.

But that assumes that I can figure out which report to believe, which is a lot harder than it sounds.

Take today. Intel announced year-end results, CFO Bryant (who’s retiring soon) and CEO Otellini (who probably wishes he could retire soon) spent a lot of time delivering data, explanations and spin to reporters. And here’s how the reporters interpreted it:

The Financial Times reporter (published through MSNBC) apparently loved every word, or at least believed my mother’s favorite adage, “If you can’t say something nice…:”
High processor prices lift Intel profits
Intel, the world’s biggest chipmaker, delivered revenues at the top end of its expectations in the fourth quarter helped by higher selling prices for a new line of microprocessors.

Its results were in contrast to a profit and revenue warning issued last week by its main processor rival, Advanced Micro Devices. AMD has more expensive manufacturing processes along with an older product line and had complained of lower selling prices.

New York Times reporter Laurie Flynn felt results were mixed but a bit more negative than positive:
Intel’s Fight for Market Cuts Margins
Intel reported yesterday that fourth-quarter profit fell 39 percent as the company continued to fight for market share and to absorb the high cost of its corporate overhaul.

The company, the world’s largest chip maker and a closely watched indicator of the overall strength of the technology industry, reported slightly higher sales than Wall Street predicted, although they were still down 5 percent from the period last year.

Reuters was less positive:
Intel Profit Falls
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Intel Corp.’s (INTC.O: Quote, Profile , Research) quarterly profit fell 40 percent amid a bruising price war with AMD and the top chipmaker’s stock fell nearly 3 percent on Tuesday after it forecast gross margins would not improve this year.

IDG reporter Ben Ames didn’t waste ink on platitudes and basically announced that the company was in the toilet:
Hit by reorganization, Intel profit falls 39 percent
Still reeling from the effects of a corporate reorganization that included heavy layoffs, Intel reported a profit of $1.5 billion for the fourth quarter, down 39 percent compared to that period last year…

The annual numbers fell short of Intel Chief Executive Paul Otellini’s own estimate, however. When he announced his plan to restructure the company in April, Otellini had predicted the company’s operating income would tumble from $12.1 billion in 2005 to $9.3 billion in 2006. In fact, it reached only $5.7 billion.

Reading the reports (and having followed the company for many years as a reporter myself) I kinda like the Reuters version. Stockholders were far less ambiguous than reporters, apparently; INTC has dropped about $1 per share in after hours trading.

Drat.

Update (1/18/07): My buddies at Intel, especially the old-timers, are of the opinion that their execs did a lousy job at the press conference and should have better explained a couple of accounting issues and that Intel’s early introduction of key processors will accelerate its push to regain marketshare from AMD in 2007. No doubt, but so far investors aren’t buying either argument; Intel’s stock has dropped $1.65 since the press conference. Dad-gummit. At this rate I’m going to own this stock forever.

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